Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets today. It is Tuesday, March 26. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:33) for listeners who want to skip ahead.
State of Play
Stocks closed a bit lower yesterday. As we look at our board of indicators at 0630, it looks like risk on is developing:
Stock index futures are pointing to a higher open, led by small caps. The Russell 2000 is up 0.6%, followed closely by the Nasdaq (+0.5%) and S&P 500 (+0.4%);
Cryptos are rallying again, with Bitcoin up 6% to trade up around $71,000 again. Apparently something called the Base blockchain, developed by Coinbase (COIN 0.00%↑) is leading to this latest surge in speculation;
Commodities are flat, with WTI crude oil unchanged at $81/barrel and copper not moving from the break-even point either. Gold continues to gain ground however, up 0.8%;
Bonds are unchanged. The 2-year yields 4.59% and the 10-year 4.23%.
Today’s Known Events
Durable goods orders are out at 0830. Economists who were surveyed expect a 1.2% increase month-over-month after a 6.1% decline last month. Core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation items, are expected to rise 0.4% MoM after a 0.3% decline last month.
Then we get Case-Shiller home prices at 0900. This is the most reliable gauge of home prices in the US, but it is a little dated — these are January’s figures that are just being released today. The economist estimate is for a 6.6% year-over-year increase in the 20-city index, the most widely watched of Case-Shiller’s indexes. It seems nationwide home prices have rebounded from their lows.
We’ll then get the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence reading at 1000. The expectation here is for a reading of 106.9, up slightly from the 106.7 recorded last month.
A few earnings today as well. Spice maker McCormick (MCK 0.00%↑), a good consumer staples gauge, reports before the open at 0930. After the close at 1600 we’ll hear from GameStop (GME 0.00%↑), which is not really a gauge of anything other than perhaps how insane some market participants are.
The Bottom Line©️
So a few things to keep us busy. Unfortunately none of this is likely to move markets today. It will all be watched, but used more to update people’s economic growth models rather than serve as an immediate catalyst to buy or sell stocks.
The move in cryptos these last 48 hours tells us that risk appetite is still alive. And then there’s the SPAC of a certain former US president. Stock ticker $DJT is it?
Not sure where a catalyst could emerge for a move higher in the broader market. As mentioned, today’s data releases are unlikely to deliver it. But sometimes you don’t need a catalyst. More buyers than sellers and all that.
Haven’t heard much about an impending recession lately. Have you?
Housekeeping
Obviously this is not investment advice (duh). Do your own research, make your own decisions.
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Durable Goods Orders, Home Prices, Consumer Confidence