Holding Pattern Into US Election Week

Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Monday, Nov. 4. Start of a big week that sees US elections, Fed meeting, and more! The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (2:39) followed by Stocks On The Contrarian Radar©️at (5:00) feat PTON 0.00%↑ for listeners who want to skip ahead.

State of Play

As we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0645, thing are pretty quiet:

• Stock index futures are flat as a board with no major US index moving more than 0.1% from the break-even point. Nvidia (NVDA 0.00%↑) is moving a big higher just because it will replace Intel (INTC 0.00%↑) in the Dow Industrials Average. That’s quite an upgrade for the Dow, which may also benefit (keeping in mind that the DJIA contains just 30 stocks and is therefore not a very good gauge of broader stock market movement. This is why we prefer the S&P 500);

• Bonds are seeing some bids. The 10-year yield is down 8 basis points to 4.29% with the 2-year yield down 4bps to 4.16% (yields move inversely to prices);

• Commodities are gaining ground with WTI crude oil up 3% to trade close to $72/barrel. Copper is up 0.7%;

• Cryptos are unchanged. Bitcoin trades around $68,800.

Today’s Known Events

Some earnings to start things off: Marriott International (MAR 0.00%↑), Yum China Holdings (YUMC 0.00%↑), Brookfield Asset Management (BAM 0.00%↑), 21st Century Fox (FOX 0.00%↑), and Chemours (CC 0.00%↑) are some of the bigger names to report before the open at 0930.

Highlights after the close include Palantir (PLTR 0.00%↑), Hims & Hers Health (HIMS 0.00%↑), Wynn Resorts (WYNN 0.00%↑), and NXP Semiconductor (NXPI 0.00%↑).

Factory orders are out at 1000. Economists who were surveyed expect, on average, a decline of 0.4% month-over-month, which is twice the 0.2% decline seen last month. There’s also a gauge of factory orders ex-transport items but there is no economist estimate for that. Last month it was -0.1%, for what that’s worth.