Non-Farm Payrolls: Silver Lining for Fed Policy

Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Friday, Aug. 1. Happy Swiss National Day to those who celebrate!

State of Play

Stocks dropped yesterday despite positive earnings. Last night saw Amazon (AMZN 0.00%↑) beat earnings estimate but the stock is still dropping overnight. There was a fresh round of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. This morning’s non-farm payrolls came in a bit below forecasts. Add it all up and our board of indicators is flashing red at 0845 ET:

• Stock index futures are down, led by small caps (never a good sign). The Russell 2000 is -1.8%. Nasdaq futures -1.2%. S&P 500: -1%

• Cryptos are dropping as well. Bitcoin -2.5% to trade around $115,700

• Commodities are relatively quiet. Copper is actually rebounding a bit (+1%). WTI crude oil is unchanged trading around $69/barel. Gold and silver are up 1% each

• Bonds are seeing some bids. The 10-year is down 10bps to 4.26%. Keep in mind that yields move inversely to prices.

‘Tariff Man’ is at it again. Today’s cover art by author with help from AI