Non-Farm Payrolls

Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Friday, Nov. 1. Welcome to the penultimate month of 2024. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:14) for listeners who want to skip ahead.

State of Play

Yesterday was pretty ugly, especially for tech stocks. The Nasdaq dropped almost 3%. After the close Amazon (AMZN 0.00%↑) and Intel (INTC 0.00%↑) supplied welcome reprieve in the form of positive earnings. Apple (AAPL 0.00%↑) earnings were less positive.

As we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0530, things appear mixed:

• Stock index futures are pointing to gains, with the Nasdaq up 0.5% and S&P 500 up 0.3%;

• Commodities are showing signs of life with WTI crude oil up 3% to trade around $71/barrel and copper up 1%;

• Cryptos are headed in the opposite direction with Bitcoin down 4% to trade around $69,500;

• Bonds are unchanged. The 2-year yields 4.18% whilst the 10-year yields 4.30%

Today’s Known Events

Non-farm payrolls are the main event, out at 0830. Here’s what is expected:

• Headline figure of 108,000 new jobs, down significantly from last month’s 254,000;

• This would keep the unemployment rate at 4.1%;

• Private payrolls of 115,000, also a significant drop from the 223,000 recorded last month;

• Average weekly hours (34.2) and average hourly earnings (4% year-over-year increase) are anticipated to be identical to last month.

There are other economic data releases to watch today. Manufacturing PMIs are out at 0945. This is expected to come in at 47.8, identical to last month and below the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction.

Construction spending is out at 1000. No change is expected, a minor improvement on the -0.1% print from last month.

Finally a few earnings to tell you about, all before the open at 0930: fuboTV (FUBO 0.00%↑), oil majors Exxon Mobil (XOM 0.00%↑) and Chevron (CVX 0.00%↑), and household goods company Wayfair (W 0.00%↑). Also Simon Property Group (SPG 0.00%↑) for all you REIT bros. Several others REITs report as a matter of fact, but SPG is the biggest.