Peace in the Middle East! Focus Turns to Fed, NYC Mayor Race

Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Tuesday, June 24.

Today’s Stocks On The Contrarian Radar©️ segment features New York City REITS NYC 0.00%↑, AVB 0.00%↑, VNO 0.00%↑, ESRT 0.00%↑, SLG 0.00%↑ and starts at the bottom of this page.

State of Play

Stocks gained yesterday despite all the brouhaha in the Middle East. That appears to be resolved now, as Iran and Israel reportedly agreed to a cease fire. As we eye or board of indicators for signs of direction at 0800 ET, the mood is clearly positive:

• Stock index futures are pointing to gains, led by tech. The Nasdaq is up 1%. S&P 500 futures 0.8% to the good;

• Commodities are all indicating risk on. Oil is dropping as can be expected. WTI crude oil is down 3% to trade around $66/barrel. Gold and silver down as well, >1% each. Copper +1.5%;

• Cryptos rallying as well, with Bitcoin up 4% to trade north of $105,000 again;

• Bonds are unchanged. The 10-year yields 4.35%, same as yesterday at this time.

Today’s Known Events

Fed Chair Jerome Powell returns to Capitol Hill today, at 1000 ET. He does this only a few times a year and it rarely moves markets. This time he can expect intense scrutiny especially from MAGA-friendly Republicans who will want to follow Trump’s lead in calling for lower interest rates and — perhaps — Powell’s removal.

Economic data releases:

• Case-Shiller Home Prices at 0900. The 20-city index is expected to show an annualized increase of 4.0%, almost identical to the 4.1% recorded last month;

• CB Consumer Confidence at 1000. A reading of 99.4 is expected, better than the 98.0 recorded last month.

One earnings report worth mentioning: Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL 0.00%↑), a good gauge of low-end consumer demand for travel, is out before the open.

Finally you’re going to want to keep an eye on New York City’s mayoral election. The Democratic primary is today and it looks like Zohran Mamdani stands to win. Mamdani is an Uganda-born local politician (Queens assemblyman) who is better known as a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. The Democratic primary often — though not always — decides the NYC mayor. The general election is not until November.