Contrarian Investor Premium
Contrarian Investor Premium
Quiet Monday: Bond Auctions, Few Earnings

Quiet Monday: Bond Auctions, Few Earnings

Thanksgiving week is usually a pretty quiet time in markets ahead of Nvidia earnings tomorrow…

Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Monday, Nov. 20. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (1:58) for listeners who want to skip ahead.

State of Play

It was a pretty quiet weekend other than Sam Altman drama. The latest twist here is that he’s joining Microsoft (MSFT 0.00%↑), which has caused that stock to rally a bit in the pre-market. As we look at our board of indicators, there isn’t an awful lot going on as of 0640:

  • Stock index futures are unchanged, with no major index moving more than 0.2% from the break-even point;

  • Commodities are showing some signs of life with WTI crude oil up 1.5% to trade around $77/barrel and copper up 0.6%;

  • Bonds aren’t doing much. The 2-year yields 4.91% and the 10-year 4.47%, both effectively unchanged;

  • Cryptos are gaining ground again with Bitcoin up 2% to trade around $37,300.

‘Calm’ drawing by author. Ink and pastel on paper, ©️2023

Known Events

There’s very little on the calendar today. Some bond auctions this afternoon and a few earnings.

Niu Technologies (NIU 0.00%↑) is probably the most recognizable name to report before the open this morning. After the close at 1600 we’ll hear from Zoom Video Communications (ZM 0.00%↑) and Agilent Technologies (A 0.00%↑).

The Bottom Line©️

Bitcoin and commodities moving higher is usually an encouraging sign for markets. Perhaps we get a stealth rally today — stealth because there isn’t anything on the calendar that should rightfully serve as a catalyst. This would be another indication that investors are leaning bullish. The premise here is that they do when there is no news often reveals their broader psychology and where they fall on the whole fear versus greed scale.

Things should otherwise be quiet today. Tomorrow will be much more interesting with earnings from retailers before the open and Nvidia (NVDA 0.00%↑) after the close.


  • There will be no briefing or podcast this Thursday (Thanksgiving) as markets are closed in the US, or on Friday as markets are open for a half day but nothing is likely to happen.

  • Obviously this is not investment advice (duh). Do your own research, make your own decisions.

  • This Substack chat tracks The Contrarian’s trades in (almost) real time. The full portfolio is available upon request.

  • If this daily thing is drowning your inbox and/or you CBF to bother with it and prefer to just get the guest feature or actionable highlights — you can control these settings on your account page.

  • Please take the listener survey! It’s like, five questions and should only take a few minutes of your time. You can win free merchandise. A lucky respondent will be selected each month to receive a classic crew-neck T-shirt.

Contrarian Investor Premium
Contrarian Investor Premium
The daily podcast discusses the major market activity and economic data release schedule for the day ahead, with a contrarian bent. Also includes regular podcast episodes a day (or more) early and without ads or announcements.