Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Monday, July 1. Happy Canada Day! The first trading day of the third quarter. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:22) for listeners who want to skip ahead.
State of Play
The PCE Deflator came in exactly as anticipated on Friday but that didn’t really move markets. Seems there are other things going on, including a possible overhang of worry over peak AI already. As we look at our board of indicators at 0645, there are no clear signs of direction:
Stock index futures are flat, with no major US index moving more than 0.1% from the break-even point;
Commodities aren’t doing anything either. WTI crude oil is up 0.5% to trade close to $82/barrel. Copper is up 0.5%;
Cryptos are showing a few signs of life, with Bitcoin up 2% to trade around $62,700;
Bonds are dropping a bit with the 2-year yield up 3 basis points to 4.75% whilst the 10-year is up 6bps to 4.41% (yields move inversely to prices).
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