Copper vs Cryptos

Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Monday, Aug. 12. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:51) for listeners who want to skip ahead.

State of Play

It was a quiet summer weekend following a quiet Friday session following an anything-but-quiet week. But that’s all in the past now. As we look at our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0700, there appears to be a bit of a tug of war going on:

• Stock index futures aren’t really doing anything. Just the Russell 2000 which tracks small caps is moving at all from the break-even point, down 0.5%;

• Commodities are rallying with copper up another 1.4% to broach the $4/pound level again. WTI crude oil is up 1% to trade around $77.50/barrel;

• Cryptos are telling a different story with Bitcoin down 3% to trade below $59,000 again;

• Bonds are unchanged. The 2-year yields 4.06% with the 10-year yielding 3.96%.

Today’s Known Events

It’s a quiet day with nothing worth noting on the calendar. No earnings of interest, no economic data either.

We do get fresh inflation data this week but that may not be the must-watch event it has been in months past. The inflation battle is effectively over — inflation lost, the Fed won — and the more important question has become whether the economy will be able to stick the elusive ‘soft landing.’ For that reason, one suspects initial jobless claims on Thursday may again be the event to watch.

We also have earnings from Home Depot (HD 0.00%↑) and Walmart (WMT 0.00%↑) this week.