Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Tuesday, April 30. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:30) for listeners who want to skip ahead.
State of Play
Stocks rose a bit yesterday in what turned out to be a pretty quiet session. As we look at our board of indicators at 0640 it looks like risk appetite is retrenching a tiny bit:
Stock index futures are pointing to a lower open led by small caps. The Russell 2000 is down 0.5%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are down 0.2% each;
Commodities are moving lower as well. Copper is down 0.9%. WTI crude oil is unchanged trading around $83/barrel. Precious metals are down as well; gold and silver by about 1% each;
Cryptos are moving a bit lower with Bitcoin down 1% to trade around $61,500;
Bonds are unchanged. The 2-year yields 4.99% whilst the 10-year yields 4.64%.
Today’s Known Events
Another busy day of earnings awaits. 3M (MMM 0.00%↑) just beat on top- and bottom-line estimates and is moving higher in the pre-market.
GE Healthcare (GEHC 0.00%↑) missed on top- and bottom-line estimates and that stock is dropping in the pre-market, down some 5% at the time of this writing;
Due to report intermittently are McDonald’s (MCD 0.00%↑), Coca-Cola (KO 0.00%↑), and PayPal (PYPL 0.00%↑), Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM 0.00%↑).
After the close at 1600 the main event featuring Amazon (AMZN 0.00%↑), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 0.00%↑), and Supermicro (SMCI 0.00%↑).
Also reporting after the close are Starbucks (SBUX 0.00%↑), Pinterest (PINS 0.00%↑), Mondelez (MDLZ 0.00%↑), and others.
Separately, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence reading for April is out at 1000. Economists who were surveyed expect this to come in at 104.0, which is below the 104.7 level where it found itself last month.
The Bottom Line©️
Earnings will likely be the driver today. Pretty much that simple. For this morning we’ll be looking to see if one of the staples companies reports something that catches the market off guard. One of these companies could very well say something in their guidance that spooks investors. But even then, what happens after the close with the big three reporters (AMZN, AMD, SMCI) will be the bigger story, one would think…
Housekeeping
Obviously this is not investment advice (duh). Do your own research, make your own decisions.
Please take the new readership/listenership survey right here in Substack! You will be entered into the drawing for a free Contrarian™️ coffee mug.
This Substack chat tracks The Contrarian’s trades in (almost) real time. The full portfolio is available upon request.
If this daily thing is drowning your inbox and/or you CBF to bother with it and prefer to just get the guest feature or actionable highlights — you can control these settings on your account page.
Finally, if you enjoy this and want others to experience it, please gift a subscription to your friends (or even your enemies).
Earnings: Amazon, AMD, SMCI. But First Coke, McDonald’s