Earnings, First Look at Q4 GDP

Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Thursday, Jan. 30.

State of Play

Stocks didn’t do much yesterday. The Fed meeting ended up being a non event, without new information to change the current trajectory of interest rate expectations. Tesla (TSLA 0.00%↑) earnings after the close fell short of forecasts but the stock still gained overnight. Microsoft (MSFT 0.00%↑) saw the exact opposite — earnings that beat estimates, but the stock is down overnight. At least Meta (META 0.00%↑) was consistent, beating estimates and moving higher.

As we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0545, things appear pointed to risk on at this early hour:

• Stock index futures are moving higher, led by small caps, usually a good sign. The Russell 2000 is up 0.9%. Nasdaq futures are 0.5% to the good;

• Cryptos are showing signs of life as well, with Bitcoin up 3% to trade north of $105,000;

• Commodities aren’t doing much. WTI crude oil is unchanged, trading around $72.50/barrel. Copper is up 0.5% though, another encouraging sign;

• Bonds are seeing a few bids. The 10-year yield is down 5 basis points to 4.51% (yields move inversely to prices).

Today’s Known Events

We start once again with earnings:

• UPS (UPS 0.00%↑) is up at the top of the hour. This is a good gauge of online purchases in the US;

• Mastercard (MA 0.00%↑), Caterpillar (CAT 0.00%↑), and Southwest Airlines (LUV 0.00%↑) are the other big names reporting before the open at 0930;

• After the close at 1600, we’ll hear from Apple (AAPL 0.00%↑), Intel (INTC 0.00%↑), and Visa (V 0.00%↑), among others.

(Just a few of the companies reporting today, via Grok AI)

There is some economic data to look for today as well. We get our first look at fourth-quarter GDP, with economists expecting 2.7% growth, below the 3.1% reported for the previous quarter.

Also jobless claims at 0830, seeing how it’s Thursday. The expectation here is for 224,000 new claims, effectively in line with last week’s 223,000 and ahead of the four-week average of 214,000.