Fed Back in Focus: Meeting Minutes, Waller Speech

Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Wednesday, Jan. 8. Today’s Stock on the Contrarian Radar©️is HSIC 0.00%↑ (see the bottom of the page).

State of Play

Stocks dropped yesterday after hotter-than-anticipated economic data brought fears of higher-for-longer interest rates. You can watch our wrap-up of yesterday’s market activity with AI host Connie here to get caught up.

As we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0645, things are pretty quiet:

• Stock index futures are pointing to a slight uptick at the open. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are up 0.3%;

• Cryptos are continuing to drop after giving up several percent in yesterday’s sell-off. Bitcoin is down 5% to trade below $96,000;

• Commodities are flat. WTI crude oil trades around $74.50/barrel, roughly unchanged. Copper prices are unchanged;

• Bonds aren’t doing anything either. The 10-year yields 4.69%.

Today’s Known Events

Some more economic data awaits before today’s open:

• ADP nonfarm payrolls at 0815. Economists who were surveyed expect 136,000 new jobs, down a bit from the 146,000 recorded last month. This ADP figure has little bearing on the government’s non-farm payrolls figure due on Friday. As such the market rarely reacts to it;

• Initial jobless claims at 0830. The expectation here is for 214,000 new claims, up a bit from the 211,000 recorded last week but well below the four-week average of 223,000. This is normally out on Thursdays but seeing how markets are closed tomorrow for the Carter funeral, it will be out today instead.

One Fed speaker this morning: Governor Chris Waller at 0830. Waller is a full FOMC voting member. He is seen as one of the more hawkish members of the FOMC.

Speaking of the Fed, minutes from the last FOMC meeting are due at 1400 this afternoon.

Could Powell soon be forced to unleash the hawks? (by author via OpenArt.ai)