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Fed Day
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Fed Day

Are investors overly optimistic about a rate cut next year? We could soon find out…

Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Wednesday, Dec. 13. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:31) for listeners who want to skip ahead.

State of Play

Stocks closed a little higher yesterday after the CPI came in pretty much exactly as forecast. As we look at our board of indicators at 0625, all is quiet ahead of the Fed meeting:

  • Stock index futures are moving a bit higher with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 up 0.2% each;

  • Cryptos are selling off a bit. This is really the only point of volatility at all and even then it’s not much as Bitcoin is down just 1% to trade around $41,100;

  • Bonds aren’t moving. The 2-year yield is 4.73%. The 10-year yields 4.19%. Worth pointing out that the short end of the curve has sold off a bit over the last 24 hours ahead of the Fed;

  • Commodities are flat. WTI crude oil is unchanged trading around $69/barrel. Copper is down 0.5%.

‘Fed Day’ graffiti by author. Ink and pastel on paper ©️2023

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The daily podcast discusses the major market activity and economic data release schedule for the day ahead, with a contrarian bent. Also includes regular podcast episodes a day (or more) early and without ads or announcements.