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Fed Day: Daily Contrarian, March 16
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Fed Day: Daily Contrarian, March 16

The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate policy as stocks look to continue their rally…

Good morning contrarians!

Stock futures are moving higher a day after a major rally on Wall Street. The Nasdaq led the gainers yesterday with a 2.9% increase. Dow Industrials and S&P 500 were up about 2% each.

That trend is continuing as of 0630, with the Nasdaq futures up another 2% and the other U.S. indexes putting up gains of 1%. It’s the same story in Europe. Asia saw a major rally today with the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong closing 9% higher.

Commodities are mostly flat this morning for a change, with WTI crude oil changing hands at $96/barrel. Industrial metals are seeing bids however, with copper, palladium, aluminium, and zinc all seeing gains of 1% or more.

Bonds aren’t doing anything after dropping with yesterday’s risk-on move. The 10-year yield is unchanged at 2.16% with the 2-year at 1.85%. Cryptos are pointing to gains with bitcoin up 5% to advance past $40,000.

FOMC Rate Decision

The Federal Open Market Committee concludes its two-day policy meeting today and announces its interest rate decision at 1400. A press conference with Fed chair Jerome Powell will follow. An increase of 0.25% to the primary credit rate, to 0.5%, is expected. Futures markets are pricing in a 98% probability of this outcome after it was effectively telegraphed by Powell in his congressional testimony a couple of weeks ago.

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The daily podcast discusses the major market activity and economic data release schedule for the day ahead, with a contrarian bent. Also includes regular podcast episodes a day (or more) early and without ads or announcements.