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Fed Day
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Fed Day

The Fed is all but guaranteed to keep rates unchanged, which means the focus will be on the policy statement and Jay Powell's press conference. Seems the market is anxious for dovish language…

Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Wednesday, March 19. Fed Day.

State of Play

Stocks dropped yesterday for no apparent reason, giving up most of Friday’s gains. As we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0650, things are quiet:

  • Stock index futures are inching upward, with the Nasdaq up 0.4% to lead major US indexes;

  • In commodities land there is a fresh record high for copper to report. The industrial metal is up 0.6% to trade around $5.05/pound, apparently due to China saying it will boost consumption;

  • Cryptos remain silent through all this. Bitcoin is up <1% to trade around $83,500, the same range it’s found itself for a week or more;

  • Bonds are unchanged. The 10-year yields 4.29%.

Today’s Known Events

The Federal Reserve decides on interest rates. There is all but guaranteed to be no change to the key policy rate so the focus will be on the policy statement and Jay Powell’s press conference. The proceedings kick off at 1400 ET.

Jerome Powell holds white dove by author via OpenArt AI

First there are some earnings to deal with:

  • Furniture retailer Williams-Sonoma (WSM 0.00%↑) and Signet Jewelers (SIG 0.00%↑) , out before the open, should provide a solid look at discretionary spending;

  • Also this morning, snacks company General Mills (GIS 0.00%↑) and Olli’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI 0.00%↑) should supply a gauge of consumer staples and bargain retail spending, respectively;

  • After the close at 1600 we’ll hear from another bargain retailer, Five Below (FIVE 0.00%↑).

The Bottom Line

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