Sep 16 • 8M

FedEx’s Warning, Michigan Consumer Sentiment

The mood is clearly tilted to risk-off in the pre-market, with stocks and bonds selling off…

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Good morning contrarians! It is Friday, Sept. 16.

Stocks dropped again yesterday, with tech seeing the worst of it. The Nasdaq fell by 1.4%. The S&P 500 declined by 1.1%. Things went from bad to worse after the close, with a profit warning from FedEx (FDX ). The company blamed macroeconomic weakness in Asia and Europe. Perhaps more importantly, its CEO told CNBC he expects a worldwide recession to ensue imminently. FDX shares dropped by 20% overnight.

State of Play

As of 0620, the risk off mood is dominant:

  • Stock futures are down, led by the Nasdaq (-1.1%). The S&P is off 0.9%;

  • Commodities are dipping. WTI crude oil is flat at $85/barrel but natural gas is down 2.5%. Silver has finally started to drop, down 2%. Copper is down 1% along with industrial commodities;

  • Cryptos are getting dumped, with bitcoin down 2% to drop below $20,000. That ethereum merger everybody was talking about? Ethereum is down 8% this morning. Good luck using that as a form of exchange;

  • Bonds are continuing to sell as well. The 2-year yield is up 3 basis points to 3.90%. You have to go back to the mid-2000s to see those levels. The 10-year is also at multi-year highs, up 2bps this morning to 3.47% (yields move inversely to prices).

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