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GDP Report, ECB Interest Rate Decision: Daily Contrarian, Oct. 28
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GDP Report, ECB Interest Rate Decision: Daily Contrarian, Oct. 28

Also pending home sales and initial jobless claims. Recovery in cryptos, our new favorite metric of short-term risk appetite.

Good morning contrarians!

Stock futures are a bit higher this morning, led by tech. The Nasdaq is up 0.4%. S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% with the Dow Industrials 0.1% higher. Smallcaps are not following the trend, down about 0.1%.

Crude oil is dropping a bit, down over 1% to around $81 but copper is 1% higher. Cryptos are recovering from their latest sell-off, with bitcoin up over 3% to near 61,000. Those numbers as of 0620.

The European Central Bank is due for its interest rate decision at 0745. This will stay at zero but economists will watch for any indication that higher inflation is perhaps starting to concern ECB officials. Inflation in the euro-zone is at a 13-year high. There is also the question of reining in pandemic stimulus measures, though a decision on that is not expected until December.

It’s worth watching the ECB partly because Canada’s central bank yesterday said it would end quantitative easing and raise interest rates sooner than anticipated. AFAIK this is the first G-7 bank to make a statement to this effect. These central banks often tend to copy each other, not that they will admit it of course. (The Bank of England may be closest to raising interest rates, potentially as soon as next month).

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The daily podcast discusses the major market activity and economic data release schedule for the day ahead, with a contrarian bent. Also includes regular podcast episodes a day (or more) early and without ads or announcements.