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Inflation Fears Return

Inflation Fears Return

At least for a day, with stocks having their worst trading session in almost a year. Cryptos appear to be immune however…

Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Wednesday, Feb. 14, 2024. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:48) for listeners who want to skip ahead.

State of Play

Stocks got pummeled yesterday after a hotter-than-anticipated CPI print. The damage was worst for small caps as the Russell 2000 gave up 4%. Major indexes had their worst day since last March. So much for stocks being decoupled from any inflation concerns! As we look at our board of indicators at 0635, it looks like this may have been short-lived as risk-metrics are pointed to ‘on’ again:

  • Stock index futures are pointing to gains, led by small caps with the Russell up 0.9%. Nasdaq futures are +0.6% with S&P 500 +0.4%;

  • Cryptos, not impacted by yesterday’s sell-off, continue to surge. Bitcoin is up another 3% to trade north of $51,000;

  • Even bonds are seeing some bids, with the 2-year yield down 5 basis points to 4.61% whilst the 10-year is down 2bps to 4.30% (yields move inversely to prices);

  • Commodities are flat. WTI crude oil is unchanged trading at $78/barrel. Copper is unchanged.

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The daily podcast discusses the major market activity and economic data release schedule for the day ahead, with a contrarian bent. Also includes regular podcast episodes a day (or more) early and without ads or announcements.