PCE Deflator Returns Focus to Inflation

Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Wednesday, Nov. 27. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (4:59) for listeners who want to skip ahead.

State of Play

It’s Thanksgiving Eve in the US, which is normally a pretty quiet trading day ahead of the market holiday. However there is a big dump of economic data on the way this morning that will keep investors interested.

As we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0650, it looks like risk-on is the mood:

• Stock index futures are flat with the exception of small caps, which are moving higher. The Russell 2000 is pointing to a gain of 0.4% at the open;

• The crypto rally appears to have resumed! Bitcoin is up 1% to move to ~$93,500. Could #Bitcoin100k be back on again?

• Commodities are moving higher as well. WTI crude oil is up 0.6% to trade north of $69/barrel with copper up 1%. Gold is up 1% as well;

• Bonds are seeing a few bids after yesterday’s FOMC meeting minutes indicated further interest rate cuts ahead. The 2-year yield is down 3 basis points to 4.22% with the 10-year yield down 3bps to 4.27% (yields move inversely to prices).

Today’s Known Events

Personal Consumption Expenditures at 1000 is the major economic data release of the day. The PCE Deflator, as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is known, is expected to increase by 0.2% month-over-month, the same as last month, which would raise the annualized number to 2.3% from 2.1%.

Core PCE prices, which exclude food and energy, are expected to print at 0.3% MoM, identical to last month, which would raise the annualized core PCE to 2.8% from 2.7%.

‘inflation for Thanksgiving’ by author via Grok AI