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Santa Rally Upended by Dire 2024 Forecasts?
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Santa Rally Upended by Dire 2024 Forecasts?

Year-end outlooks are pessimistic and stocks are forward-looking beasts…

Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Wednesday, Dec. 6. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (4:02) for listeners who want to skip ahead.

State of Play

Stocks dropped yesterday after the JOLTS report showed fewer new jobs than anticipated, but cryptos resumed their rally. As we look at our board of indicators at 0640, there are no clear signs of direction:

  • Stock index futures are pointing to small gains at the open, with S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 all up 0.2%;

  • Cryptos are continuing their ascent, with Bitcoin up another 4.5% to trade around $43,500;

  • Bonds are selling off a bit, with the 2-year yield up 4 basis points to 4.62% whilst the 10-year is up 4bps to 4.20% (yields move inversely to prices);

  • Commodities are mixed, with WTI crude oil continuing to give ground, down 1% to trade around $71.50/barrel. Copper is up 0.6% however.

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The daily podcast discusses the major market activity and economic data release schedule for the day ahead, with a contrarian bent. Also includes regular podcast episodes a day (or more) early and without ads or announcements.