Tariffs On, Powell Speech, Retail Sales

Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Wednesday, April 16.

State of Play

Stocks closed unchanged yesterday after a quiet trading session. (When was the last time we said that?) There was some bad news after the close from Nvidia (NVDA 0.00%↑), which announced a big tariff hit for exports of its H20 processors to China. Overnight earnings from ASML (ASML 0.00%↑) disappointed — tariffs again — adding to the negative sentiment for tech.

As we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0650, this is impacting risk appetite, especially in tech:

• Stock index futures are pointing to a lower open. The Nasdaq is leading the drop, down 1.4%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.8%;

• Commodities are mixed. We’re seeing another big rally in gold and silver, both up 2.5% but then copper is down 0.7%. WTI crude oil is up <1% to trade close to $62/barrel;

• Cryptos are dropping with Bitcoin down 2% to trade below $84,000;

• Bonds are unchanged through this. the 10-year yields 4.34%.

Today’s Known Events

The main event is probably Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Economic Club of Chicago at 1330 ET. Topic: the economic outlook. This will be broadcast live. One can expect Powell to speak of tariffs. His previous comments on the topic have been kind of non-committal, at least where interest rate policy is concerned.

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