The 3-Headed Monster Vexing Markets

Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Thursday, Nov. 21. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (4:27) for listeners who want to skip ahead.

State of Play

Nvidia (NVDA 0.00%↑) earnings after yesterday’s close were kind of blah, beating expectations but not by the margin that Wall Street has come to expect. The stock dropped a bit overnight.

(“Blah NVDA earnings” cartoon by author via Grok AI)

As we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0645, things are relatively quiet other than in crypto land:

• Cryptos continue their advance into record territory. Bitcoin is up another 5% to trade close to $98,000;

• Stock index futures are flat as a board with no major US index moving at all from the break-even point;

• Commodities are rallying, for the most part. WTI crude oil is up 2% to trade north of $70/barrel. Gold and silver are up. Copper isn’t going along however, down 0.5%;

• Bonds are unchanged. The 2-year yields 4.30% with the 10-year yield 4.40%.

Today’s Known Events

Earnings are in focus, again:

• BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ 0.00%↑) reports were mixed but the company appears to have raised guidance and the stock is rallying in the pre-market, up 6%;

• Deere & Co. (DE 0.00%↑) beat top- and bottom-line estimates but the stock isn’t moving;

• Baidu (BIDU 0.00%↑) earlier reported mixed results and is down 2.5% at the time of this writing;

• Pinduoduo (PDD 0.00%↑) missed on top- and bottom-line estimates and is getting beat up a bit, down 9%;

• Warner Music Group (WMG 0.00%↑) is also due before the open;

• After the close at 1600 we’ll hear from The Gap (GAP 0.00%↑) and Ross Stores (ROST 0.00%↑).

Initial jobless claims are out at 0830. Economists who were surveyed expect 220,000 new claims, effectively in line with the 217,000 recorded last week and in line with the four-week average of 221,000.

Existing home sales at 1000. The expectation here is for 3.94 million sales, an increase over the 3.84 million recorded last week.

One Fed speaker: Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee speaks at some event in Indiana at 1225. Goolsbee is just an alternate voting member this year.

The Bottom Line

Investors hate uncertainty more than they hate bad news. Right now there are three elements of uncertainty vexing the narrative, all tied to the incoming US president:

(“3-headed Trump monster” by author via Grok AI)