Trump Trade Gathers Steam

Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Friday, Nov. 8. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (4:40) followed by Stocks On The Contrarian Radar©️ at (6:25) feat PINS 0.00%↑ for listeners who want to skip ahead.

State of Play

Trump +2 saw another rally for stocks, this one even more broad-based. Major US indexes closed at fresh record highs again. The Fed’s interest rate decision (25 basis point cut, as expected) was overshadowed by the Trump trade hysteria, as anticipated.

As we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0625, the picture is a bit cloudier:

• Stock index futures are mixed for a change, with tech leading a bit of a drop. The Nasdaq is down 0.4%. Probably earnings are weighing on this. Arista Networks (ANET 0.00%↑), Rivian (RIVN 0.00%↑), and Airbnb (ABNB 0.00%↑) reported disappointing numbers. Other indexes are hogging the break-even point;

• Commodities are dropping again, with WTI crude oil down 1.5% to trade close to $71/barrel. Copper is down 2%, giving back yesterday’s gains. China did announce a stimulus package but that once again appears to have disappointed the market judging by these moves;

• Cryptos continue their ascent however, with Bitcoin up 2% to move north of $76,000 and within range of its all-time high of $76,837;

• Bonds are also seeing some bids. The 2-year yields is down 5bps to 4.17% with the 10-year yield down 4bps to 4.30% (yields move inversely to prices).

(Today’s cover image created by author via OpenArt.ai)