Walmart Earnings, Housing Starts

Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Thursday, May 16. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:20) for listeners who want to skip ahead. Be sure to check out the new ‘One Year Ago Today’ segment at the bottom of this page.

0720: Updated with Walmart (WMT 0.00%↑) earnings (not reflected in the podcast).

State of Play

Stocks rallied yesterday after the Consumer Price Index came in almost exactly as anticipated. Investors hung their faith on the fact that monthly headline inflation printed 0.1% lower than estimates and used it as an excuse to buy stocks and bonds. Major US indexes closed at record highs. As we look at our board of indicators at 0635, things are pretty quiet:

• Stock index futures are unchanged with the exception of small caps, which are headed a bit lower. The Russell 2000 is down 0.3%;

• Cryptos are advancing, with Bitcoin up 6% to trade around $66,200;

• Commodities are quiet. Copper is unchanged and WTI crude oil up just 0.4% to trade around $78.30/barrel;

• Bonds are unchanged. The 2-year yields 4.74% whilst the 10-year is 4.34%.

Earnings

We’ve already had a few come in:

• Walmart (WMT 0.00%↑) beat estimates and adjusted guidance toward the high end of its previously-announced range. The stock is moving higher to the tune of ~5% at the time of this writing;

• JD.com (JD 0.00%↑) and Baidu (BIDU 0.00%↑) beat estimates and are moving higher in the pre-market;

• Deere & Co (DE 0.00%↑) also beat estimates but appears to have lowered guidance as that stock is moving lower, to the tune of ~6% at the time of this writing;

• German industrial conglomerate Siemens (SIEGY) reaffirmed guidance but is moving lower in Frankfurt trading.