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Election Day: Don’t Sweat the Results, Unless…
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Election Day: Don’t Sweat the Results, Unless…

Stock futures are up a bit with copper prices as DJT stock rallies…

Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Tuesday, Nov. 5. Happy Election Day in the US! The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:10) for listeners who want to skip ahead.

State of Play

Stocks moved sideways yesterday in a quiet day of trading just as we had anticipated. As we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0630, some modest risk appetite appears to be poking its head out:

  • Stock index futures are pointing to small gains led by tech. The Nasdaq is up 0.4% With S&P 500 futures up 0.3%;

  • Commodities are continuing to gain ground with the big move this morning in copper, which is up 1%. WTI crude oil is up 0.5% to trade close to $72/barrel. Gold and silver are unchanged;

  • Bonds aren’t doing anything. The 2-year yields 4.18% whilst the 10-year yields 4.31%;

  • Cryptos are flat as a board. Bitcoin is unchanged trading around $69,000.

Today’s Known Events

Obviously the US election is the main event today. This even though we won’t get definitive results for a few days in all likelihood — or maybe longer. The obvious tea leaf to watch is Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT 0.00%↑). That stock rallied by 12% yesterday and is up 6% in the overnight session but after all that it’s still down substantially (27% or so) from where it was just one short week ago.

Source: Wikimedia Commons and author

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The daily podcast discusses the major market activity and economic data release schedule for the day ahead, with a contrarian bent. Also includes regular podcast episodes a day (or more) early and without ads or announcements.